Eyes on the Enemy is MBR's weekly preview of Michigan's upcoming opponent.

It's that time of the year again.

Michigan & Penn State are unequivocally good, but without any ranked wins between the two, this midseason matchup should answer plenty of questions about both programs.

In 2021, Michigan TE Erick All's late touchdown propelled the Wolverines to a late-game victory on the road.

Penn State won back-to-back over U-M in the 2019 & 2020 seasons, which followed a three-game streak from Jim Harbaugh's team.

James Franklin is 1-3 at the Big House, with his sole victory coming in 2020 against a 2-4 Michigan team.

This game's implications on the Big Ten east cannot be understated. Whichever team wins is set up to be a win over Ohio State away from winning the division if they can take care of the rest of their schedule.

With Michigan State struggling and the Big Ten west lacking contenders at a national level, the path is clear for whoever comes out on top.

Before Saturday, here's our scout on Penn State.

Head coach: James Franklin (72-34 at Penn State)

Defensive scheme: Multiple 4-3/4-2-5

James Franklin's offense is led by an experienced QB in 25th-year senior Sean Clifford, who hasn't been in college football for that long, but it sure seems like it.

Clifford's accuracy has left a lot to be desired. His 62% completion percentage is 81st-best among starting QBs. He isn't making memorable plays, either, with the 103rd-most Big Time Throws -- a metric Pro Football Focus uses to determine accurate throws in tight windows, usually downfield.

He's more volatile than anything else, which isn't typically the case for a sixth-year senior, with more Turnover Worthy Plays (5) than Big Time Throws (4). His 66.3 Pass Grade ranks 88th, and even his Adjusted Completion Percentage (72.7%) leaves him at 70th.

Reminder: There are 65 Power 5 teams in college football, and Clifford is below that number in every PFF passing grade and metric.

While the running backs are undoubtedly good -- Kaytron Allen (81.4 Rush Grade), Nicholas Singleton (72.5) -- the offensive line isn't helping Clifford or the backs with its protection.

Two linemen are excelling, while the remaining three are abysmal.

Penn State's 68.0 Pass Block Grade is 53rd-best nationally, and its 58.9 Run Block Grade is 80th.

On obvious passing downs, three of Penn State's linemen, including guards and the right tackle, grade out below 45.0.

Here's where those three linemen's Pass Block grades rank overall:

RT Caedan Wallace (54.9) -- 521st

RG Sal Wormley (52.4) -- 552nd

LG Landon Tengwall (57.9) -- 478th

As for the two who excel, here's where they stand:

LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (86.3) -- 19th

C Juice Scruggs (77.6) -- 121st

More on how that affects the matchup later.

As for the scheme, Penn State will run an even split of gap + zone concepts in the run game while relying on the play fakes and using Clifford's legs to evade pressure and get him on the run while the skill players get open in space.

Parker Washington (74.9 REC Grade) is the best player in the receiving room, but Mitchell Tinsley (68.2) leads the team with 32 targets. Despite TE Brenton Strange's 84.6-grade ranking 3rd-best among tight ends with more than 10 targets, his 16 targets are 61st-most, making his usage questionable.

Here's a visual look at Penn State's offense.

Clifford's legs and Penn State's blockers have been detrimental to the senior's health throughout his time in Happy Valley.

For example, look at the hit above -- if the video doesn't automatically start at 1:02, start there.

But this play, in particular, showcases how careless Clifford can be with the ball. His inability to slide and take what he can get has to be troubling to the coaching staff. He's flattened on that play and fumbles. Luckily, they recovered.

Despite bad passing grades, Clifford's legs and the breakaway ability of the running back room opened up the play-action game for Penn State this season.

Clifford has the 23rd-most TD passes off of play-action (5), but his 8.8 Average Depth of Target on PA ranks 106th, which means Franklin is asking Clifford to make quick reads and short throws in space -- a common theme in today's game.

When Clifford throws without a play fake, his play falls off significantly. His 57.6% completion percentage is 104th, 588 yards is 101st, and if his legs are his saving grace in these situations, then why does he only have four scrambles, one of which being the fumble against Auburn?

Penn State's offense relies on the run (198 yards per game, 28th) to set up the pass (251 yards per game, 55th), but without an effective run game, it doesn't have the personnel, from protection to the quarterback, to win games in the air.

It's hard to argue against Michigan's chances when the defense matches up this well.

There's not much Penn State has shown an ability to do that counters what the Wolverines do defensively.

But there is one thing teams like Indiana exposed: U-M's coverage from its linebackers. Junior Colson is Michigan's highest-graded LB in coverage, and he's 122nd in the country.

Outside of that, Michigan's defense is an unequivocal mismatch for Penn State's offense.

Michigan's 91.8 Rush Defense Grade is 2nd-best nationally, and its 91.7 Coverage Grade is 9th.

If Penn State opts to use heavy play-action and forces Michigan's defense to account for a Run/Run/Pass option with Clifford and a back, or both backs, then U-M's answer will have to be tackling in space.

With a 91.0 Tackling Grade, Michigan is the best tackling team in college football.

Of course, there's tempo. Something that worked tremendously for Indiana in the first half last week against U-M. But after DC Jesse Minter made his halftime adjustments, the Hoosiers didn't score in the second half and finished with 10 points.

Against Indiana's tempo, Michigan still had 8-of-11 starters with a tackling grade higher than 75.0. However, it was the DB's worst game in coverage by a long shot.

Nickel Mike Sainrsitil led the team with a 77.6 Coverage Grade, and freshman depth CB Will Johnson trailed him at 71.3. Michigan's two starting CBs, DJ Turner & Gemon Green, had coverage grades below 65.0.

Besides an obvious talent discrepancy, the difference between Indiana & Penn State is an Air Raid Offense vs. Spread. Michigan's coverage struggled compared to previous games, but Indiana QB Conner Bazelak threw the ball 49 times, 31 of them in the first half, and the offense totaled 19 rushing yards.

Indiana relies on the pass for success. Penn State needs the run for the pass to work effectively.

Michigan consistently erases rushing attacks. If it erases Penn State's, there's a good chance the Nittany Lions will struggle to get down the field.

Manny Diaz's defense likes to get in your face in many way, mixing varying pressures & disguises with stunts & twists from the defensive front.

It's a four-man front that prides itself on pressures opposing quarterbacks can't find before the snap. Often, Penn State's defense will switch its front after the QB makes his pre-snap read, something Diaz did well at Miami.

It's similar to Don Brown's defense in that it's a 4-2-5, but also in that it's selling out the pressure getting home, because if it doesn't, here's what happens:

Penn State is in Cover 1 and shows five on the left side with a linebacker in the A gap. The corners on the left side are leveraging with their backs to the sideline, which does many things, notably giving the DBs an angle to force a turnover on a forced throw in the air into the pressure.

Understandably so, as the Nittany Lions force the sixth-most turnovers in college football, without them, they might not have the record they have. In a 10-point win over 1-5 Northwestern at home, albeit in a rainstorm, the defense forced five turnovers, but the offense suffered three of their own, scoring 17 points in a 17-7 win.

Plays like this bring back shadows of Don Brown scaling Michigan's sideline. Auburn's QB gets enough protection to stay in the pocket and has the presence to step up.

Penn State thinks it has Auburn beat here because the A Gap LB drops back into a QB spy while the LB standing up blitzes -- a nice design.

One problem, though. If a QB checks at the line and has the pocket presence to step up in the pocket, this will happen:

If the QB has the legs and presence to read and evade pressure, Penn State's aggressiveness becomes more of a gamble.

I labeled the players with numbers to make it easier.

When the QB steps up, he's ahead of the pressure. Every player is behind him. I'm not sure if he sees the spy (Player #3), but even if he did, there are 5 yards of space between them, and he's already at the LOS.

He correctly opts to throw. Why was it the right call?

The QB's step-up matched with legs draws the cover corner (Player #2) just a step, but that step allows the WR (Player #1) to find a soft spot between the safety (Player #5) & Player #2. The space between the safety (5) & cover corner (2) is nearly 15 yards -- a lot of room for the wideout to work.

Meanwhile, Player #4, covering the flat, is essentially out of the play as Auburn put everyone in the middle with max protection.

Here's how the field looked when the ball was caught:

That's a lot of room to work with only one unblocked defender to beat.

Penn State's 36th-best Coverage Grade (83.5) allows it to get away with these things, but these types of pressures will hurt them more in the run game than the passing game because of how often its front is overpursuing the runner.

Diaz's defense grades out as the 96th overall rushing defense despite allowing under 200 yards a game (192.6), 28th-best.

More alarming than any other number is Penn State's 48.7 Tackling Grade, third-worst among 65 Power 5 teams and 116th overall among 131 FBS teams.

Though the team's 86.9 Pass Rush Grade is elite (6th nationally), if a QB can read it at the line and adjust with an effective run game, the defense is vulnerable to mistakes.

There's still a ton of talent, and the defense is OK sacrificing chunk plays if it can force turnovers more than once a game.

Michigan could be the team to expose Penn State's defense or proves it's legit.

Among its five opponents, three in-conference, Ohio is the best scoring offense it's faced (61st). Penn State's conference opponents -- Northwestern (114th) & Purdue (62nd) -- both have struggling offenses. And then there's Auburn, whose 16 points per game ranks 117t nationally.

This is more than a "first test" for Penn State's defense. It's facing an offense on a different planet than the five it's met so far.

Michigan's offense is a counter to Penn State because it has a variety of ways to counter what Diaz's defense does.

QB J.J. McCarthy has the legs to evade pressure and the Football IQ to check it at the line, something he's shown an ability to do throughout the season.

Then there's RB Blake Corum, who's second in the country in rushing touchdowns and backs up his gaudy numbers with a 90.2 Run Grade, second-best nationally. Diaz's defense struggles to match gap fits in the run scheme because of the aforementioned vulnerability to overpursuit.

We already know how badly PSU grades out as a run defense and now it has to face Michigan's 90.6 Run Offense, sixth-best grade nationally, against arguably the most dangerous back in the country.

And if Penn State decides to sell out on the run, Corum's shown an ability to do it all on his own.

Corum, of course, can't do that every play if the pressure is there. So if Diaz indeed opts to sell out on the run, which is hard to believe given McCarthy's passing ability, then Penn State will rely on -- you guessed it -- pressure.

The pass rush is elite, and the coverage is good, too, but man, the inability to tackle is a huge concern with the number of weapons Michigan has.

Michigan has the weapons to give the Nittany Lions a ton of issues in space, whether it's McCarthy, Corum, Donovan Edwards, Roman Wilson, Ronnie Bell, AJ Henning, and the list goes on.

The Wolverines' pass block has been good enough (32nd), and the run block (15th) continues to maul.

Against Penn State's defense, Michigan's offense will do what it always does, game-plan-wise, and take what the opposition gives them.

On film, that's running the ball early to set up the play-action later, which should aid the O-Line in protecting McCarthy against Penn State's fearsome pass rush, giving McCarthy and his national-best 78.3% completion percentage an opportunity to work, whether it's underneath or overtop.

If Michigan runs the ball as well as it has, and Penn State defends it as poorly as it has, U-M's ground game, which should result in ball control, could prove to be the difference.

If U-M intends to find run fits early with Corum & Edwards and can't, similar to last week against Indiana following the first drive, then the offense will need to adjust.

It didn't need to adjust as quickly against the Hoosiers as it will need to against Penn State. If the run game is canceled out, then McCarthy, who had a career-high in attempts (36) and yards (304) last week, will have to answer the bell.

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